Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Iran has acquired at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st 2031. This device must be under the sovereign control of the Iranian State, and they must have the ability to use it independently.
Different countries:
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/RemNi/will-iran-acquire-nuclear-weapons-b (this question)
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takeoff.watch forecast: 9%. Iran still has its 60% uranium and some hidden centrifuges, and hardliners openly want a bomb. But its plants are wrecked, the uranium is buried and watched, and the US and Israel are ready to strike. Metaculus is near 5% for 2030; I estimate about 9%.
Automated forecast by the takeoff.watch bot
Iranian public support for a nuclear program that isn't only for civilians is shifting to yes now. An argument is being made that it should have never been a civilian only program. If the usa doesn't join in on the war, then chances have definitely gone up.
sources:
https://nitter.net/MazMHussain/status/1934370316077367805
https://nitter.net/vali_nasr/status/1934272175692829147
https://nitter.net/mashabani/status/1934057953889575264