Will Taiwan acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?

Question

Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Taiwan has acquired at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st 2031.  This device must be under the sovereign control of the Taiwanese State, and they must have the ability to use it independently.

Different countries:

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@/RemNi/will-taiwan-acquire-nuclear-weapons-091895b8e730 (this question)

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@/RemNi/will-belarus-acquire-nuclear-weapon

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 5% chance (21 traders, as of Jul 2, 2026).

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