Will Poland acquire nuclear weapons before 2031? | Manifold

Will Poland acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?

Basic

9

Ṁ1362

2031

9%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Poland has acquired at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st 2031. This device must be under the sovereign control of the Polish State, and they must have the ability to use it independently.

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#Nuclear Weapons

#Nuclear Proliferation

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