Will Iran use a nuclear weapon in combat by 2030?
19
1kṀ1699
2031
9%
chance

Resolves yes if Iran detonates or attempts to detonate a nuclear weapon against an enemy country or force by December 31, 2030.

Of course, this is related to the question whether Iran will develop a nuclear weapon by 2030. (See https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-iran-have-a-nuclear-weapon-by-958ce4dc195c). Will resolve no if Iran does not have any nuclear weapons.

Iran
Middle East
Geopolitics
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1y

to be valid, the question would have to be open until 2030 and I don't have that capability now

1y

@WilliamDewey Okay, I now see the difference between closed and resolved markets

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