Will Iran use a nuclear weapon in combat by 2030? | Manifold

Will Iran use a nuclear weapon in combat by 2030?

Geopolitics Iran Middle East

Basic

13

Ṁ365

Jan 1

12%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves yes if Iran detonates or attempts to detonate a nuclear weapon against an enemy country or force by December 31, 2030.

Of course, this is related to the question whether Iran will develop a nuclear weapon by 2030. (See https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-iran-have-a-nuclear-weapon-by-958ce4dc195c). Will resolve no if Iran does not have any nuclear weapons.

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to be valid, the question would have to be open until 2030 and I don't have that capability now

@WilliamDewey Okay, I now see the difference between closed and resolved markets

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