Will Iran use a nuclear weapon in combat by 2030?
18
1kṀ11382031
8%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves yes if Iran detonates or attempts to detonate a nuclear weapon against an enemy country or force by December 31, 2030.
Of course, this is related to the question whether Iran will develop a nuclear weapon by 2030. (See https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-iran-have-a-nuclear-weapon-by-958ce4dc195c). Will resolve no if Iran does not have any nuclear weapons.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2030?
44% chance
Will Iran acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
36% chance
Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030? Conditional Trump Elected.
40% chance
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2040?
46% chance
Will there be a nuclear strike on a civilian or military target by 2030?
19% chance
Will Iran conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2025?
12% chance
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by 2030?
31% chance
Will Iran use nuclear weapons against Israel before 2030?
6% chance
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2050?
68% chance
Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2025?
10% chance