Will Iran use a nuclear weapon in combat by 2030?
21
Ṁ1kṀ1.7k2031
9%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves yes if Iran detonates or attempts to detonate a nuclear weapon against an enemy country or force by December 31, 2030.
Of course, this is related to the question whether Iran will develop a nuclear weapon by 2030. (See https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-iran-have-a-nuclear-weapon-by-958ce4dc195c). Will resolve no if Iran does not have any nuclear weapons.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
People are also trading
Related questions
Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030? Conditional Trump Elected.
23% chance
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2030?
28% chance
Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2026?
5% chance
Will Iran assemble a nuclear bomb before January 2026?
1% chance
Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?
60% chance
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by 2030?
28% chance
Will Iran use nuclear weapons against Israel before 2030?
6% chance
Will Iran acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
30% chance
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2040?
50% chance
Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2050?
59% chance