Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if Iran enriches uranium to 90% purity (weapons-grade) or higher at any point during 2026, as verified by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or credible intelligence assessments. Resolution will be based on reports from the IAEA (https://www.iaea.org/), official statements from the U.S. State Department or intelligence community, or peer-reviewed analysis from established nuclear research institutions such as the Institute for Science and International Security (https://isis-online.org/).

The market resolves NO if Iran does not achieve weapons-grade enrichment during 2026, regardless of whether it increases enrichment levels below 90%.

Background

As of June 2025, Iran possessed 441 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%, which is just below weapons-grade. Weapons-grade uranium is enriched to 90%. Iran can convert its current stock of 60 percent enriched uranium into 233 kg of weapons-grade uranium in three weeks at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, enough for 9 nuclear weapons.

In June 2025, Israel and the United States targeted Iran's nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. Pentagon assessments indicated the strikes damaged Iran's nuclear facilities but "likely only set it back by months".

As of December 2025, Iran is not enriching uranium for the first time in nearly 20 years, though Iran appears to be attempting to rebuild Fordow.

In September 2025, the UN Security Council reimposed all sanctions that had been lifted in 2016 following the snapback process initiated by France, Germany and the United Kingdom.

If verification is impossible and there are no credible reports, this will resolve no