Will Germany acquire nuclear weapons before 2031? | Manifold

Will Germany acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?

30

1kṀ4958

2031

14%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Germany has acquired at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st 2031. This device must be under the sovereign control of the German State, and they must have the ability to use it independently.

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Nuclear Weapons

Nuclear Proliferation

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Germany is not going to sit around while Iran, Turkey and Poland get nuclear weapons

So it is currently seen as (two times!) more probable for Germany to acquire nuclear weapons than to revive its nuclear power?

France offered to share control of its nukes and Germany refused. If they change their minds, does this count?

@BrunoParga There would have to be strong evidence that the German state has a nuclear weapon that it can use independently

Does this include NATO weapon sharing?

@NathanScott No, the weapons have to be under the sovereign control of the German state.

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