Will Iran test fire a nuclear weapon before the end of 2026?
26
240Ṁ2553
2027
3%
chance

Resolves YES for the first test that takes place during the market open and close dates.

  • Update 2025-07-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that the market will resolve based on a test occurring before the market close date (Jan 1, 2027), not the date mentioned in the title ('before 2026').

  • Update 2025-07-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to user confusion, the creator has confirmed the market covers the period up to the market close date of Jan 1, 2027.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:
bought Ṁ20 NO

They don't seem to be doing much:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-nMdbvN0IX8

This says "before 2026" but the market close date would imply "before 2027".

@JimAusman Which one is it?

@EvanDaniel before the end of was what I had intended to do. I screwed up and traded on this market - I try not to do that in general. Did you trade on the basis of thinking that it applied to Jan 1 2026?

@JimAusman I honestly don't remember what basis I traded on -- that was ages ago. I was looking around at various Iran markets (there are a lot of similar markets in general) and trying to figure out what might be mispriced and just now noticed the discrepancy. I suspect if I'd noticed it last year I would have pointed it out then.

@EvanDaniel I changed the wording to make it clear. I can resolve N/A if you prefer.

@JimAusman Thank you!

I personally prefer clarification to n/a. People (like me) can read and raise questions if they find issues. Thanks for the prompt fix!

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy