Will Iran test fire a nuclear weapon before the end of 2026?
20
240Ṁ10072027
9%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES for the first test that takes place during the market open and close dates.
Update 2025-07-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that the market will resolve based on a test occurring before the market close date (Jan 1, 2027), not the date mentioned in the title ('before 2026').
Update 2025-07-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to user confusion, the creator has confirmed the market covers the period up to the market close date of Jan 1, 2027.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?
8% chance
Will Iran test a nuclear bomb before January 2026?
7% chance
Israel strikes Iran before 2026?
42% chance
Will Iran assemble a nuclear bomb before January 2026?
6% chance
Will Iran conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2025?
6% chance
Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2026?
20% chance
Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2025?
8% chance
Will Iran obtain a nuke in 2025?
6% chance
Will Iran nuke Israel before the end of 2025?
2% chance
Will Israel deploy a tactical nuclear weapon against Iran’s nuclear facility before January 2026?
4% chance