Will Iran test fire a nuclear weapon before the end of 2026?
20
240Ṁ10072027
9%
chance
1H
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Resolves YES for the first test that takes place during the market open and close dates.
Update 2025-07-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that the market will resolve based on a test occurring before the market close date (Jan 1, 2027), not the date mentioned in the title ('before 2026').
Update 2025-07-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to user confusion, the creator has confirmed the market covers the period up to the market close date of Jan 1, 2027.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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