Resolution criteria

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if at least one nuclear weapon is detonated within the internationally recognized borders of Iran at any time before January 1, 2030. For the purposes of this market, "nuclear weapon" is defined as any explosive device that derives its destructive force from nuclear reactions (fission, fusion, or a combination thereof). The determination will be based on consensus reporting from major international news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC) and official verification from international bodies such as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or the United Nations.

If there is no confirmation of such an event by the resolution date, the market will resolve to NO.

Background

As of April 2026, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East involves active conflict between Iran, the United States, and Israel. International focus remains on Iran's nuclear infrastructure following various military operations conducted since June 2025. While military strikes have targeted Iranian nuclear-related facilities, there have been no credible reports or evidence of nuclear weapons being used in the conflict to date. The status of Iran's nuclear program—including the location and security of enriched uranium stockpiles—remains a subject of significant international monitoring and debate.

This description was generated by AI.