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MANIFOLD
Total cases of measles reported in US during 2026
54
Ṁ2.1kṀ24k
2027
99.1%
x ≥ 3000
99%
x ≥ 3500
87%
x ≥ 4000
75%
x ≥ 4500
62%
x ≥ 5000
34%
x ≥ 5500
19%
x ≥ 6000
15%
x ≥ 6500
7%
x ≥ 10000
4%
x ≥ 20000
3%
x ≥ 50000
1.4%
x ≥ 100000
Resolved
YES
x ≥ 750
Resolved
YES
x ≥ 1000
Resolved
YES
x ≥ 1500
Resolved
YES
x ≥ 2000
Resolved
YES
x ≥ 2500
Resolved
YES
x ≥ 500
Resolved
YES
x ≥ 250

How many cases of measles will be reported in the US during 2026?

If the number of cases x is equal to or greater than the number listed in an option as reported by the Johns Hopkins Measles Tracker, it will resolve to YES. Otherwise, the option will resolve to NO. The market will resolve at the end of January 2027 to allow for lag in reporting.

Market context
Epidemiology
Measles
Infectious Disease
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Right on the edge.

@traders I added an option for 4000 cases.

@dfish can you add more options? 3600 3700 3800 3900 4100 4200 4300 4400

@JasonMendoza2008 can do. Would you mind adding some liquidity?

bought Ṁ20 YES

Ooof that chart... 📈

@dfish resolves yes

@LietKynes thank you

The reported cases are at 997, just below the 1,000 case threshold.

@traders, we have exceeded the 750 case threshold. Up, up, and away!

sold Ṁ639 YES

@traders, by request, I added options for higher cases. Please see options for 20k, 50k, and 100k.

Please add some more higher numbers

@Jack1, what do you think about 50k and 100k?

@traders, I added a new option for x ≥ 3500.

@dfish want to go ahead and get something low(er) probability added? Like 10k?

@EvanDaniel sounds like a good idea. I added options for 5k and 10k.

@dfish ... 20k? 50k?

bought Ṁ387 YES

@traders, line goes up! We are at 518.

@traders, the reported measles cases has exceeded the threshold of 250.

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