Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the specific range or number representing the total count of deaths in the United States officially attributed to measles in the year 2027.

The primary source of truth will be the CDC's official Measles Cases and Outbreaks page, specifically the annual summary table indicating the total number of "U.S. Deaths" for 2027.

Additional details and edge cases:

• Official Tracking: The CDC relies on death counts verified by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), where measles is identified as the underlying cause of death on the death certificate.

• Timing: Because final epidemiological reviews and death certificate processing can take time, this market will resolve once the CDC or NCHS publishes finalized data for 2027. If no finalized data is available by February 1, 2028, the market will resolve using the best available provisional data on measles deaths for 2027 reported by the CDC or NCHS as of that date.

• If the CDC ceases public reporting on the specified page, the market will resolve based on official final reports from the NCHS / National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) or the CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) annual summaries for 2027.

Background

Measles is a highly contagious viral illness that was declared eliminated from the United States in 2000. However, importations from international travelers and declining vaccination rates in under-immunized communities have led to a resurgence of outbreaks, with cases in 2025 and 2026 reaching their highest levels in decades.

Historically, U.S. measles deaths are rare; the CDC reported 3 deaths in 2025 and 2 deaths in 2026. In 2026, the CDC transitioned its tracking policy to prioritize NCHS death certificate records over preliminary local state health department reporting to ensure standardized, verified cause-of-death classification.

This description was generated by AI.