Total cases of measles reported in US during 2026 | Manifold

Total cases of measles reported in US during 2026

46

Ṁ1.6kṀ10k

2027

98%

x ≥ 1000

97%

x ≥ 1500

96%

x ≥ 2000

94%

x ≥ 2500

87%

x ≥ 3000

84%

x ≥ 3500

64%

x ≥ 5000

25%

x ≥ 10000

15%

x ≥ 20000

10%

x ≥ 50000

3%

x ≥ 100000

Resolved

YES

x ≥ 750

Resolved

YES

x ≥ 500

Resolved

YES

x ≥ 250

How many cases of measles will be reported in the US during 2026?

If the number of cases x is equal to or greater than the number listed in an option as reported by the Johns Hopkins Measles Tracker, it will resolve to YES. Otherwise, the option will resolve to NO. The market will resolve at the end of January 2027 to allow for lag in reporting.

Market context

Infectious Disease

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1,000

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@traders, we have exceeded the 750 case threshold. Up, up, and away!

sold Ṁ639 YES

@traders, by request, I added options for higher cases. Please see options for 20k, 50k, and 100k.

Please add some more higher numbers

@Jack1, what do you think about 50k and 100k?

@traders, I added a new option for x ≥ 3500.

@dfish want to go ahead and get something low(er) probability added? Like 10k?

@EvanDaniel sounds like a good idea. I added options for 5k and 10k.

@dfish ... 20k? 50k?

bought Ṁ387 YES

@traders, line goes up! We are at 518.

@traders, the reported measles cases has exceeded the threshold of 250.

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Number of measles deaths reported by CDC in the US in 2026?

Will the CDC report more measles cases in 2026 than 2025?

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Will I get the flu by June 2026?

Will the UK have a measles outbreak of 10k cases or more before 2028?

Will a single infectious disease cause 200,000+ U.S. hospitalizations by April 15, 2026?

Lockdowns/mandates in USA from Monkeypox by end of 2026?

Related questions

Number of measles deaths reported by CDC in the US in 2026?

Will the CDC report more measles cases in 2026 than 2025?

Will the CDC report twice as many measles cases in 2026 as 2025?

Will measles become endemic in the U.S. due to the current Texas outbreak?

Will I get the flu by June 2026?

Will the UK have a measles outbreak of 10k cases or more before 2028?

Will a single infectious disease cause 200,000+ U.S. hospitalizations by April 15, 2026?

Lockdowns/mandates in USA from Monkeypox by end of 2026?

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