Resolution criteria

Each option (2027, 2028, 2029, 2030) in this market is independent and will resolve based on whether the final reported number of confirmed measles cases in the United States for that year exceeds the final reported count for the year 2026.

• YES: If the CDC’s finalized (or consolidated provisional) annual count of confirmed measles cases in the United States for the respective year is strictly greater than the final count for 2026.

• NO: If the count is equal to or less than the final count for 2026.

Source of Truth: The primary source of truth is the CDC's official Measles Cases and Outbreaks page. If the data is archived or the page structure changes, final annual tables from the CDC's National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (NNDSS) or the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) will be used.

Resolution of each year will occur once the CDC has published consolidated data for both 2026 and the year in question. If the CDC permanently stops tracking or reporting measles case counts, the market will resolve using official World Health Organization (WHO) data for the United States, or N/A if no reliable data can be found.

Background

Measles was declared eliminated in the United States in 2000 due to high coverage of the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine. However, the U.S. has seen a major resurgence in cases starting in 2025.

• 2025 Context: The CDC recorded between 2,144 and 2,288 confirmed cases across the country.

• 2026 Context: As of late May 2026, the CDC has already confirmed nearly 2,000 cases across 38 states and the District of Columbia, putting the year on pace to potentially match or exceed the high caseloads of 2025.

The current resurgence is driven primarily by clusters of undervaccination, combined with cases imported by unvaccinated international travelers. Historically, larger outbreaks typically follow when the virus is imported into close-knit, highly susceptible communities.

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