Will AI pass the Rube Goldberg Turing test by the end of 2028?
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Here's a human-made video of a Rube Goldberg machine:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ss-P4qLLUyk
Eliezer Yudkowsky has predicted that the ability to generate a video like that (indistinguishable from reality even on close human inspection) from a prompt will require an AI that's within 1 year of AGI.
Since this is another leading indicator, I thought it would be good to have Manifold market for it.
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