Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?
Plus
50
Ṁ26k2030
59%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@DavidBolin Pass the test. An expert version of it. See the Metaculus market for details. The Metaculus market is in turn based on the inaugural bet at longbets.org, as is the following market: https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-ai-pass-the-turing-test-by-202
So these can be arbitraged since they're predicting exactly the same thing.
Related questions
Related questions
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
60% chance
Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]
38% chance
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
8% chance
Will AI pass Video Turing Test by 2030?
69% chance
Will AI pass the Bob Ross Turing Test by 2035?
70% chance
Will Ray Kurzweil win his 2029 Turing Test bet with Mitchell Kapor?
57% chance
Will General Artificial Intelligence happen before 2035?
60% chance
In what year will there be an AI capable of passing a high-quality Turing test?
Will a smart agent pass our Turing test by the end of 2025?
59% chance
Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2030?
57% chance