Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet? | Manifold

Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?

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opened a Ṁ4,000 NO at 60% order

M4000 order on NO, fill it while it lasts!

"Complete" as in "take the test," or as in "pass the test"?

predictedNO

@DavidBolin Pass the test. An expert version of it. See the Metaculus market for details. The Metaculus market is in turn based on the inaugural bet at longbets.org, as is the following market: https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-ai-pass-the-turing-test-by-202

Will AI pass the Turing test by 2029 Jan 1?

74% chance. This is based on the inaugural longbets.org bet. I think Kapor will win and Kurzweil will lose, i.e., that a computer will not pass [what Kurzweil calls a valid] Turing test by 2029. ((Bayesian) Update: But I admit the probability has jumped up recently!) See also https://www.metaculus…

So these can be arbitraged since they're predicting exactly the same thing.

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Which AI model will first pass the Longbets version of the Turing test?

Will AI wipe out AI before 2030?

Will AI surpass human intellect by 2030?

Will AI pass Video Turing Test by 2030?

Will AI pass the Bob Ross Turing Test by 2035?

In what year will there be an AI capable of passing a high-quality Turing test?

Will a robot capable of passing both the Coffee Test and a strong, adversarial Turing test be created before 2100?

Will an AI Lab in China build AGI before 2030?

Will the Twitter Turing Test be passed by 2030?

Will an AI be solely responsible for an AI breakthrough by the end of 2030?

Related questions

Which AI model will first pass the Longbets version of the Turing test?

Will AI wipe out AI before 2030?

Will AI surpass human intellect by 2030?

Will AI pass Video Turing Test by 2030?

Will AI pass the Bob Ross Turing Test by 2035?

In what year will there be an AI capable of passing a high-quality Turing test?

Will a robot capable of passing both the Coffee Test and a strong, adversarial Turing test be created before 2100?

Will an AI Lab in China build AGI before 2030?

Will the Twitter Turing Test be passed by 2030?

Will an AI be solely responsible for an AI breakthrough by the end of 2030?

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