Will any model pass an "undergrad proofs exam" Turing test by 2027?
20
1kṀ9872027
79%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The model receives each question as text (or text + images), outputs an answer as text + images, and is graded as part of a pool with human students who also took the test.
"Pass" means >=70%
Has to be a proofs-based exam, e.g. abstract algebra, topology, linear algebra if it's proofs heavy.
There are probably undergrad math exams *somewhere* that are very easy, so I will be exercising my judgment on whether the exam "counts". Unfortunately I do not have examples to hand of what I consider reasonable, but something like "would be a medium difficulty 200-level proofs exam at a top-tier university".
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will a robot capable of passing both the Coffee Test and a strong, adversarial Turing test be created before 2100?
94% chance
Will a human be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2040?
76% chance
Will a smart agent pass our Turing test by the end of 2025?
56% chance
Will the Twitter Turing Test be passed by 2028?
54% chance
Will AI pass Video Turing Test by 2030?
65% chance
Will the Twitter Turing Test be passed by 2030?
86% chance
In what year will there be an AI capable of passing a high-quality Turing test?
Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?
60% chance
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
56% chance
Will any model get above human level on the Simple Bench benchmark before September 1st, 2025.
42% chance