In what year will there be an AI capable of passing a high-quality Turing test?
15
1.8kṀ21902050
12%
2024
7%
2025
4%
2026
5%
2027
5%
2028
5%
2029
5%
2030
5%
2031
3%
2032
3%
2033
2%
2034
2%
2035
2%
2036
2%
2037
2%
2038
2%
2039
2%
2040
10%
2041
22%
The Turing test, originally called the imitation game by Alan Turing in 1950, is a test of a machine's ability to exhibit intelligent behaviour equivalent to, or indistinguishable from, that of a human.
This is a companion market to /ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708
This market has the same same resolution criteria as that market, but uses a dependent multiple choice format.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will AI pass Video Turing Test by 2030?
65% chance
In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark?
10/7/28
In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench benchmark?
6/8/32
Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?
60% chance
Will a smart agent pass our Turing test by the end of 2025?
56% chance
Will a robot capable of passing both the Coffee Test and a strong, adversarial Turing test be created before 2100?
94% chance
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
53% chance
Will AI pass the Bob Ross Turing Test by 2035?
75% chance
In what year will human-level AI first exist?
2038
From which country will originate the AI that first passes Manifold AI's high quality Turing Test?