Inspired by @strutheo ’s popular “What will happen in <month>?” markets.
What will happen in DC in 2024? As a resident of the District, I have a particular interest in what happens in this city.
Events do not have to actually occur in DC to resolve yes, but must be related to the city and/or impact/be uniquely newsworthy to its residents in some way. i.e. a Washington sports team winning a championship at an away game would qualify as a DC event for the purposes of this question.
I would prefer to minimize the amount of general questions handled ad nauseum elsewhere on Manifold, such as federal U.S. politics events (especially ones happening on the campaign trail outside of DC proper) and regular season sporting events. Again, my interest is primarily to understand how I as a resident of this city may be affected by events happening in or to this city this year.
📋GUIDELINES (subject to revision)
I reserve the right to N/A any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates, abuse, or answers I feel lower the quality of this market. For example, I will likely N/A self-referential answers like 'will this market reach X answers' or answers for events that have already happened.
I encourage proof posted in the comments to assist me in resolving answers accurately and timely.
Make your answer submissions as clear and descriptive as possible. I reserve the right to rephrase answers as needed.
@mattyb I'll resolve this YES if peak bloom (top right field in this table) is before March 23rd. This means it is both historically early and earlier than NPS's March 23-26th projection.
Example existing markets that get at the types of answers I’m looking for:
By @TonyBaloney