@ElmerFudd Do I understand “DAUs” and “within the week” correctly as “if the daily (not 7d av) DAU chart for any day before Oct 16th is 3324 or higher” then this resolves Yes?

@ZicoVerona Exactly

@ElmerFudd https://manifold.markets/stats

Stats

See site-wide usage statistics.

2,000 signups, not all completed DAU actions. 2618 DAUs Yesterday.

@Gen It's a lower activation rate than LK-99, but I think there's a chance that the new signups might be a bit more sustained over a few days compared to the (relative) one-and-done LK-99 spike, since NYT articles are a little less transient than viral tweets.

@chrisjbillington I really can never know what you're up to

@Gen Haha wtf

@Gen The traffic has remained a bit thicker than LK-99, relative to peak. Nowhere near enough for this market's YES criteria, but still very positive for Manifold.

Sure. There's me, for starters.

Welcome! I'm so curious what someone who found us through the NYT thinks of the site

@Joshua I’m hooked.

@Joshua NYT provided a totally new concept to me. Intrigued and learning. It’s a bit like trying to read a little studied foreign language. Looks robust and well considered. Wondering if it is sustainable.

Does anyone have a link where I can read the article?

@JustifieduseofFallibilism here : https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/08/technology/prediction-markets-manifold-manifest.html

@firstuserhere sorry I meant to say, without paywall

@firstuserhere begs the question, how big will the Manifold bump be for new NYT signups 😂

@JustifieduseofFallibilism Oh sure, here: https://web.archive.org/web/20231008111500/https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/08/technology/prediction-markets-manifold-manifest.html

@firstuserhere this one bypasses the paywall

@firstuserhere I had never before attended a business conference with a 28 percent chance of an orgy.

already a banger

@JustifieduseofFallibilism every argument you read against prediction markets the need for them becomes more obvious.

@JustifieduseofFallibilism Exactly. These folks are so close the final step where they realize that if prediction markets are predictably biased, it’s easy money for them!

@JustifieduseofFallibilism I think the person who wrote this never realized that they were the idiot. 90% for Hilary was always too high, and Fivethirtyeight's model was already showing that.

If they were the non-idiots, they would realize that idiots are a great way to make a profit.

page views are already going down post NYT bump https://analytics.umami.is/share/ARwUIC9GWLNyowjq/Manifold%20Markets

I'm not betting this down further for

now because there could get a bump from another source