Manifold had 1324 DAUs yesterday. Resolves YES if Manifold has >= 3324 DAUs within the week.
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@ElmerFudd Do I understand “DAUs” and “within the week” correctly as “if the daily (not 7d av) DAU chart for any day before Oct 16th is 3324 or higher” then this resolves Yes?
@Gen It's a lower activation rate than LK-99, but I think there's a chance that the new signups might be a bit more sustained over a few days compared to the (relative) one-and-done LK-99 spike, since NYT articles are a little less transient than viral tweets.
@Gen The traffic has remained a bit thicker than LK-99, relative to peak. Nowhere near enough for this market's YES criteria, but still very positive for Manifold.
@Joshua NYT provided a totally new concept to me. Intrigued and learning. It’s a bit like trying to read a little studied foreign language. Looks robust and well considered. Wondering if it is sustainable.
@firstuserhere begs the question, how big will the Manifold bump be for new NYT signups 😂
@firstuserhere I had never before attended a business conference with a 28 percent chance of an orgy.
already a banger
@JustifieduseofFallibilism every argument you read against prediction markets the need for them becomes more obvious.
@JustifieduseofFallibilism Exactly. These folks are so close the final step where they realize that if prediction markets are predictably biased, it’s easy money for them!
@JustifieduseofFallibilism I think the person who wrote this never realized that they were the idiot. 90% for Hilary was always too high, and Fivethirtyeight's model was already showing that.
If they were the non-idiots, they would realize that idiots are a great way to make a profit.
page views are already going down post NYT bump https://analytics.umami.is/share/ARwUIC9GWLNyowjq/Manifold%20Markets