Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before 2030?
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26
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2030
4%
chance

Narva is a city in Estonia close to the Russian border whose inhabitants are mostly ethnic Russians (87%) who almost all speak Russian (96%) and many of whom even have Russian citizenship (36%).

Some experts believe Russia might militarily seize Narva in a Crimea-style operation to stress test NATO.

Will Russia militarily seize Narva before 2030?

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bought Ṁ130 NO

I don't have enough mana to bring this lower, but... this question is equivalent to "will Russia attack NATO".

No they won't.

bought Ṁ2 YES

@BrunoParga I don't have enough mana to bring this higher, but... the question is equivalent to "will Putin decide to attack NATO". He is crazy and there are no safety latches in russian govetnment.

@KongoLandwalker Putin is very much not crazy. Evil? Definitely. Stupid? A bit. Crazy? Not at all.

@BrunoParga I used crazy as a synonyme for stupid.

bought Ṁ10 NO

@MikeLinksvayer Putin is slowly winning over Ukraine. Nobody expected this to go this poorly for him, he wasn't completely crazy for trying nor does it seem like he's completely crazy for persisting. (He's still quite crazy, but there's some logic at play)

Ukraine has big gas fields which would make the EU independent of Russian gas even without a war and Ukraine has some of the richest soil in the world. Putin is not fighting over nothing.

(I do not at all like that Ukraine is being invaded, to be clear)

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