If there is no war 1/1/2030, the question is a N/A.
If there is, the YES is evenly distributed between countries that get invaded during the first day.
If Russia is invaded by a NATO country first, the question resolves to Russia, although it is not a NATO country. (The option gets added from Other).
Individual incidents (terrorist attack, bombing, etc.) do not count, it has to be an army invading the country at large, or other form of attack causing thousands of fatalities.
Due to partially subjective nature of the resolution criteria, I will not bet on the market.
Related questions
Very interesting market!
My bets are based on the following analysis:
- https://youtu.be/ZY7GPBSyONU?feature=shared
- https://youtu.be/JwhaPPzD9oQ?feature=shared
I think the most probable variant is Lithuania.
A) Its capital is much closer, and Kremlin likes ideological benefits of that kind. Capturing the capital would allow to immediately name a victory (even though it is not the end of a war).
B) Connection to Kaliningrad. Same argument for propaganda "we are bringing our people home" as used before.
C) There is a saying in russian "Peter the first carved a window into Europe". It was about international relations. But I am afraid Putin would love comparison to Peter 1, even if he uses brutal force to carve a hole IN Europe.
D) That would stop railway connection of other Baltic countries to Nato, making them more vulnerable for immediate attack that could follow.
E) Attack on Lithuania vould mobilise the forces of the Belarus satellite. I think former Vagner mercenaries were invited there by Lukashenko not like a sign of good will towards them, but just to train his army.
F) Romania currently has a huge shield. I do not think Ukraine will fall before Kremlin decides to raise the stakes. I expect them to divert attention FROM south front, so Nato and allies would need to split military aid for both regions (Ukraine, something on the north).
G) Romania has a very long border with other countries. If it is conquered full, then it is difficult to defend (contact points with different armies and their different tactical principles). If it is not conquered fully, then it would be difficult to sell the operation in the propaganda tv.
H) If we accept that propaganda is a sign, then Lukashenko's regular hatespeech against Poland would give it the second place. It also on the path towards Kalinindrad.
My personal evaluation of this market:
Lithuania 40%
Poland 20%
Estonia 10% (they might start pushing the region from the top to use the chinese concept of "leave the enemy a pathway to fall back")
Ukraine 2% (not possible to become a NATO state legally, NATO would need to rewrite their policy, they might not want to do it, it will make the direct confrontation with "russian interests" sooner)
Finland 1% (experience in the Ukraine would not transfer well in that landscape, huge amount of lakes narrows down possible logistic paths and makes defence easier (attacker has to go through chokepoints))
27% that Russia does something not described in my text. For some reason Russia propaganda uses a lot of hate against England. So, a nuke on London or attack on Romania - all scenarios go into this 27% pack.
@c824 I will split it for you. Bear in mind, however, that the question will resolve to Ukraine only if Ukraine is a NATO member at the time of NATO-Russia conflict.