Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before the end of 2025?
11
100Ṁ751Dec 31
6%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Narva is a city in Estonia close to the Russian border whose inhabitants are mostly ethnic Russians (87%) who almost all speak Russian (96%) and many of whom even have Russian citizenship (36%).

Some experts believe Russia might militarily seize Narva in a Crimea-style operation to stress test NATO.
Will Russia militarily seize Narva before the end of 2025?
See this question but for other years:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before the end of 2026?
11% chance
Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before the end of 2027?
11% chance
Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before the end of 2028?
15% chance
Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before 2030?
32% chance
Russian attacks or invades Estonia by mid 2026
9% chance
Will Russia retaliate militarily on any non-participating member of NATO before the end of 2025?
8% chance
Will Russia nuke Ukraine before the end of 2025?
2% chance
Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2025?
2% chance
Will Russia strike NATO member countries hosting transit bases for Ukrainian military equipment by EOY 2025?
12% chance
Will Russia completely annex Ukraine by end of 2025?
2% chance