Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before the end of 2025?
22
100Ṁ1746resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Narva is a city in Estonia close to the Russian border whose inhabitants are mostly ethnic Russians (87%) who almost all speak Russian (96%) and many of whom even have Russian citizenship (36%).

Some experts believe Russia might militarily seize Narva in a Crimea-style operation to stress test NATO.
Will Russia militarily seize Narva before the end of 2025?
See this question but for other years:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ18 | |
| 2 | Ṁ15 | |
| 3 | Ṁ11 | |
| 4 | Ṁ9 | |
| 5 | Ṁ6 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before 2030?
10% chance
Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before the end of 2026?
3% chance
Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before the end of 2027?
4% chance
Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before the end of 2028?
9% chance
Russian attacks or invades Estonia by mid 2026
5% chance
Will Russia invade any NATO country before 31 December 2026?
5% chance
Will Russia attack Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia) by 2030?
20% chance
Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?
20% chance
Will Russia take Poltava by EOY 2028?
18% chance