Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before 2030?
22
1kṀ2114
2030
14%
chance

The Suwałki Gap is a short strip of land that separates the Baltics from the rest of NATO, stretching from Kaliningrad to Belarus.

In the event of a conflict between NATO, Russia might attempt to close the Suwałki Gap to isolate the Baltics.

Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before 2030?

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The community prediction on Metaculus for a related question ("Will Russia annex any part of any Baltic country by 2035?") is currently 4% (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8786/russian-annexation-in-the-baltics-before-2035/).

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reposted

Perun published a YouTube video on Baltic defence strategy, including a discussion of the Suwałki Gap and whether it would be targeted in the event of a Russian attack.

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