Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before 2030?
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1kṀ21502030
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The Suwałki Gap is a short strip of land that separates the Baltics from the rest of NATO, stretching from Kaliningrad to Belarus.
In the event of a conflict between NATO, Russia might attempt to close the Suwałki Gap to isolate the Baltics.
Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before 2030?
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This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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The community prediction on Metaculus for a related question ("Will Russia annex any part of any Baltic country by 2035?") is currently 4% (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8786/russian-annexation-in-the-baltics-before-2035/).
Perun published a YouTube video on Baltic defence strategy, including a discussion of the Suwałki Gap and whether it would be targeted in the event of a Russian attack.
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