Will Russia formally cede any territory before 2030? | Manifold

Will Russia formally cede any territory before 2030?

28

1kṀ2311

2029

28%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This market resolves Yes if Russia officially states that any territory it regrads as part of the country at the start of 2024 is not part of Russia anymore before January 1, 2030 (perhaps, although not necessarily, as part of a peace deal with Ukraine). This question is not about actual control or third-party recognition.

The obvious candidates are the recently annexed regions (Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts) and Crimea.

See also:

Ukraine-Russia war

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before 2030?

Will russia occupy kyiv at any point before 2030?

Will Russia formally cede Crimea before 2030?

Will Russia lose control of at least as much territory inside Russia as it did to Wagner by the end of 2030?

Will Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?

Will Russia make a territorial claim in Antarctica, before 2030?

Will any part of pre-2014 Russia territory become an internationally recognized independent state by the end of 2040?

Will a territory with over 10 million people cease to be part of Russia by 2025?

Will a territory with over 1 million people cease to be part of Russia by 2025?

Will Russia nuke Ukraine before the end of 2030?

Sort by:

bought Ṁ30 YES

It will probably have to if it wants to get Kursk back

bought Ṁ100 YES

Russia doesn’t even fully control some of the regions it „annexed“ as their territory.

Does this cover the territory that Russia regards as its own, but doesn't actually control, like Kherson city?

@OlegEterevsky Yes.

People are also trading

Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before 2030?

-3% 1d12% chance

Will russia occupy kyiv at any point before 2030?

-5% 1d19% chance

Will Russia formally cede Crimea before 2030?

Will Russia lose control of at least as much territory inside Russia as it did to Wagner by the end of 2030?

Will Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?

Will Russia make a territorial claim in Antarctica, before 2030?

Will any part of pre-2014 Russia territory become an internationally recognized independent state by the end of 2040?

Will a territory with over 10 million people cease to be part of Russia by 2025?

Will a territory with over 1 million people cease to be part of Russia by 2025?

Will Russia nuke Ukraine before the end of 2030?

Related questions

Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before 2030?

Will russia occupy kyiv at any point before 2030?

Will Russia formally cede Crimea before 2030?

Will Russia lose control of at least as much territory inside Russia as it did to Wagner by the end of 2030?

Will Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?

Will Russia make a territorial claim in Antarctica, before 2030?

Will any part of pre-2014 Russia territory become an internationally recognized independent state by the end of 2040?

Will a territory with over 10 million people cease to be part of Russia by 2025?

Will a territory with over 1 million people cease to be part of Russia by 2025?

Will Russia nuke Ukraine before the end of 2030?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy