Moving closer to 2030 question: it makes sense from Putin's side to attack while Trump is president, or not at all. (At least in significant number of worlds).

@Irigi Trump moving nuclear submarines caused a lot of volatility yesterday in 2030 market.

@Henry38hw To me, moving the submarines is much more likely explained by Trump short term opinion change + protecting his ego than by real commitment to nuclearly deterr Russia.

But if his stance lasts 6+ months, I will shift my beliefs on this question.

@Irigi have you familiarised yourself with the info about the new peace negotiations?