Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before the end of 2028?
11
100Ṁ4302028
15%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Narva is a city in Estonia close to the Russian border whose inhabitants are mostly ethnic Russians (87%) who almost all speak Russian (96%) and many of whom even have Russian citizenship (36%).
Some experts believe Russia might militarily seize Narva in a Crimea-style operation to stress test NATO.
Will Russia militarily seize Narva before the end of 2028?
See this question but for other years:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before the end of 2026?
11% chance
Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before the end of 2025?
6% chance
Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before the end of 2027?
11% chance
Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before 2030?
32% chance
Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2027?
20% chance
Russian attacks or invades Estonia by mid 2026
9% chance
Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2028?
20% chance
Will Russia nuke Ukraine before the end of 2028?
4% chance
Will Russia take Poltava by EOY 2028?
23% chance
Will Russia invade a NATO country before 2026?
5% chance