Narva is a city in Estonia close to the Russian border whose inhabitants are mostly ethnic Russians (87%) who almost all speak Russian (96%) and many of whom even have Russian citizenship (36%).
Some experts believe Russia might militarily seize Narva in a Crimea-style operation to stress test NATO.
Will Russia militarily seize Narva before 2030?
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@BrunoParga I don't have enough mana to bring this higher, but... the question is equivalent to "will Putin decide to attack NATO". He is crazy and there are no safety latches in russian govetnment.
@BrunoParga not exactly the same time frame (3 years more) but https://manifold.markets/marktwse/will-russia-attack-nato-before-2034 and https://manifold.markets/Shalun/will-russia-launch-a-military-invas-ae19d7c21e45 are around 10% and https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-russia-attack-baltic-states-li 17% and while somewhat broader https://manifold.markets/uair01/when-will-russia-attack-europe-with seems crazily high. This (Narva) one seems cheap by comparison.
@MikeLinksvayer Putin is slowly winning over Ukraine. Nobody expected this to go this poorly for him, he wasn't completely crazy for trying nor does it seem like he's completely crazy for persisting. (He's still quite crazy, but there's some logic at play)
Ukraine has big gas fields which would make the EU independent of Russian gas even without a war and Ukraine has some of the richest soil in the world. Putin is not fighting over nothing.
(I do not at all like that Ukraine is being invaded, to be clear)