Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?
79
8kṀ44k
2029
20%
chance

Resolves YES if Russian ground troops enter at least one of Estonia, Lithuania or Latvia and the AP calls it an "invasion".

Market context
Wars
Geopolitics
Ukraine-Russia war
Russia
Ukraine
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will Russia attack Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia) by 2030?
25% chance
Will the Russian Federation invade a NATO country before 2028?
21% chance
Will Russia invade any NATO country before 31 December 2026?
8% chance
Will Russia launch a military invasion of a NATO country by 2033?
41% chance
Russian attacks or invades Latvia by mid 2026
11% chance
Will Russia launch a full scale military attack against Poland by the end of 2029?
8% chance
Will Russia launch a military invasion of Kazakhstan by 2033?
10% chance
Will Russia invade a NATO country before 2030?
19% chance
Will Russia launch a military attack against Poland by the end of 2039?
38% chance
Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before the end of 2028?
9% chance
Sort by:
boughtṀ6,000YES

@BrendanTroadec is there some awful news I should know about?

@AlexanderTheGreater Nothing but the osint

A similar question which resolves true in case of both ground invasion and rocket launches and resolves one year later has a lower probability now

filled a Ṁ25 NO at 6% order

The community prediction on Metaculus for a related question ("Will Russia annex any part of any Baltic country by 2035?") is currently 4% (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8786/russian-annexation-in-the-baltics-before-2035/).

@Liedholm and that market closes six years after this one!

Added 7k liquidity. Very important market!

People are also trading

Will Russia attack Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia) by 2030?
25% chance
Will the Russian Federation invade a NATO country before 2028?
21% chance
Will Russia invade any NATO country before 31 December 2026?
8% chance
Will Russia launch a military invasion of a NATO country by 2033?
41% chance
Russian attacks or invades Latvia by mid 2026
11% chance
Will Russia launch a full scale military attack against Poland by the end of 2029?
8% chance
Will Russia launch a military invasion of Kazakhstan by 2033?
10% chance
Will Russia invade a NATO country before 2030?
19% chance
Will Russia launch a military attack against Poland by the end of 2039?
38% chance
Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before the end of 2028?
9% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy