Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?

8kṀ14k

2029

30%

chance

ALL

Resolves YES if Russian ground troops enter at least one of Estonia, Lithuania or Latvia and the AP calls it an "invasion".

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A similar question which resolves true in case of both ground invasion and rocket launches and resolves one year later has a lower probability now

filled a Ṁ25 NO at 6% order

The community prediction on Metaculus for a related question ("Will Russia annex any part of any Baltic country by 2035?") is currently 4% (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8786/russian-annexation-in-the-baltics-before-2035/).

@Liedholm and that market closes six years after this one!

Added 7k liquidity. Very important market!

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