Will Russia invade any NATO member country before 31 December 2026?

• This question asks participants to predict whether there will be any military action by Russia that constitutes an invasion of a NATO member country’s sovereign territory before the end of 31 December 2026.

• For the purposes of this market, an “invasion” is defined as the unauthorized entry of Russian military forces into the sovereign territory of a NATO member country that is publicly acknowledged by NATO as an act of aggression.

• Verification of an invasion can be based on official statements from NATO, the government of the member country involved, or the Russian government.

• Incidents that are ambiguous or not officially recognized as an invasion by NATO or the member country’s government will not count towards the resolution of this market.

• This market will resolve to “Yes” if any such invasion occurs before the specified date, and “No” otherwise.