Narva, Suwałki Gap, Rostov-on-Don - Entangled market

Question

Resolves YES if Russia attacks Narva.

Resolves 50% if Russia or Belarus attack Suwałki Gap.

Resolves NO if Ukraine attacks Rostov-on-Don.

Whichever event happens first after the market opening resolves this market. If nothing happens before 2030, then the market resolves to N/A.

If Narva and Gap happen at the same date, then resolves to 75%.

By attack I mean an operation with the aim of controlling the territory. Sabotage actions do not count.

This market is an exercise in calculating more complicated expected values and encourages people not only to predict Whether something happens, but also whether the event comes sooner than others.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 68% chance (3 traders, as of Apr 4, 2025).