Narva, Suwałki Gap, Rostov-on-Don - Entangled market
3
120Ṁ1952030
68%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if Russia attacks Narva.
Resolves 50% if Russia or Belarus attack Suwałki Gap.
Resolves NO if Ukraine attacks Rostov-on-Don.
Whichever event happens first after the market opening resolves this market. If nothing happens before 2030, then the market resolves to N/A.
If Narva and Gap happen at the same date, then resolves to 75%.
By attack I mean an operation with the aim of controlling the territory. Sabotage actions do not count.
This market is an exercise in calculating more complicated expected values and encourages people not only to predict Whether something happens, but also whether the event comes sooner than others.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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