China has already depleted most of its natural resources, so is becoming increasingly less self-sufficient. The growing need for supplies of vital imports including fossil fuels, food, and freshwater will place increasing strain on the PRC. This challenge will focus on China’s growing shortage of freshwater, and the implication of a possible land grab in the southeast of Russia where Lake Baikal is located.
The rationale for this potential outcome is that China is facing a growing water scarcity crisis that will have a significant impact on energy production, food availability, and access to domestic freshwater supplies. Factors leading to this impending catastrophe include water-intensive practices of multinational corporations operating in China, inefficient manufacturing, construction, and agriculture processes, and the impact of climate change. The Chinese government is making every effort to mitigate the crisis through water imports and desalination. The PRC has also recently initiated projects to transfer water from water-rich to water-scarce areas. One example is the South-North Water Diversion Project, which aims to alleviate shortages in the north. The government believes the project's long-term benefits will go some way to alleviating the problem, but the project won't be fully complete until at least 2050.
In the meantime if there’s a risk of civil unrest as a result of widespread water shortages, one drastic solution might be to encroach into Russian territory to obtain access to Lake Baikal as it contains around 20% of the world’s fresh water.
View “Will China occupy a region of Russia by 2045?” on Youtube: https://tinyurl.com/CH-RUwaterwar
This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2046, credible sources report that the People's Republic of China has launched an invasion of any area of Russian territory, defined as at least 100 overtly flagged military personnel from the People's Liberation Army having been deployed over the Russian border, with the operation believed to be for the purpose of placing any area of Russia’s sovereign territory under the control of the PRC.
Fine Print
If separatists or other unofficial pro-China actors seize control of a region in Russia the question will resolve as Yes if China sends at least 100 overtly flagged troops into the region without permission from Russia while Russia still claims to possess the territory in question.
A deployment of overtly flagged troops across the border that fails to capture territory is sufficient to result in the question resolving as Yes, if credible sources assess that the intent of the operation was to seize territory.
Russia peacefully allowing a region to vote to secede or become independent is not sufficient to qualify as "seizing control". To be considered "seized" the separatists or unofficial pro-China actors must use military force or the threat of military force to take control of the territory.
For the purposes of this question, in the case of territorial disputes or challenges to the legitimacy of either Russia or China, a successor government will be recognized as one which holds over 50% of the territory under the de facto control of the country on September 25, 2023, and whose political capital city is within that same territory. If the country no longer exists or has no successor as defined at the time of resolution, this question will resolve as Ambiguous.
Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the original source is in doubt, and may make a determination as to appropriate resolution in the event of unclear or contradictory information, or resolve the question as Ambiguous.
Related questions
I think 19% is pretty underpriced here. Russia is somewhat likely to experience some internal political troubles in the next 10-15 years, certainly when Putin dies, for example. China also has historical claims to parts of Eastern Russia.
In April 2023, US diplomat John Bolton speculated that China (PRC) is "undoubtedly eyeing this vast territory, which potentially contains incalculable mineral wealth," (referring to Asian Russia generally) further noting that "[s]ignificant portions of this region were under Chinese sovereignty until the 1860 Treaty of Peking"
On February 14, 2023, the Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China relabelled eight cities and areas inside Russia in the region with Chinese names.[16][17] The eight names are: Boli for Khabarovsk, Hailanpao for Blagoveshchensk, Haishenwai (Haishenwei) for Vladivostok, Kuye for Sakhalin, Miaojie for Nikolayevsk-on-Amur, Nibuchu for Nerchinsk, Outer Khingan (Outer Xing'an[18]) for Stanovoy Range, and Shuangchengzi for Ussuriysk.[19]
@zzlk Agree! Skip to 11:52/19:26 >> Will China occupy a region of Russia by 2045?: https://tinyurl.com/CH-RUwaterwar
@KongoLandwalker does it have to be a whole region (administrative unit of russia), or any part of any sq km?
@KongoLandwalker very good point! The question should be changed to "Will China use military force to occupy a region of Russia by 2045?" or "Will China attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046?"
@KongoLandwalker This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2046, credible sources report that the People's Republic of China has launched an invasion of any area of Russian territory, defined as at least 100 overtly flagged military personnel from the People's Liberation Army having been deployed over the Russian border, with the operation believed to be for the purpose of placing any area of Russia’s sovereign territory under the control of the PRC.
@PeterBuyukliev “We are not going to wait to die of thirst in Egypt, we’ll go to Ethiopia and die there.”
@PeterBuyukliev Humans can live without energy or rare early materials. You need water to grow food, and without access to fresh water you'll die within days.
@foresightbureau we have already the technology to purify water. See Israel for example of this infrastructure at scale, NOW. It is hilariously shortsighted to pick fights with a nuclear power over water, if you can just build the infrastructure.
Just because Hollywood movies and bad scifi write about water crises, it doesn't mean it is going to happen.
Likewise for metals and fossils. I have no clue what OP is thinking when he writes "China has already depleted most of its natural resources", because it is flat out not true.