Inspired by Scott:
https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/mantic-monday-103023
"I can’t find any markets on the Middle East topic I’m actually interested in, which is Israel’s medium-term plan. Will they kill some Hamas leaders, then get out? Install a puppet government? Permanently occupy Gaza like they’re occupying the West Bank? These all seem like bad options, but they’re very different bad options, and I haven’t seen much speculation about which is most likely."
Close date may be extended if it seems like the situation hasn't settled down.
@Daniel_MC I know I said close may be extended, but I don't want to keep extending it indefinitely, because it is medium term, not long term.
I think this will be really tough to resolve and I will not invest more than a little gambling money here.
Here is my try:
/marketwise/will-israel-occupy-gaza-in-april
/marketwise/will-israel-withdraw-again-from-gaz