What is Israel’s medium-term plan (what will end up happening?)?

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Ṁ627

Dec 10

ALL

25%

Kill some Hamas leaders, then get out

Install a puppet government

50%

Permanently occupy Gaza like they’re occupying the West Bank

1.6%

Get bogged down in a stalemate

Permanently cut gaza in half, occupy the North

Other

Inspired by Scott:

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/mantic-monday-103023

"I can’t find any markets on the Middle East topic I’m actually interested in, which is Israel’s medium-term plan. Will they kill some Hamas leaders, then get out? Install a puppet government? Permanently occupy Gaza like they’re occupying the West Bank? These all seem like bad options, but they’re very different bad options, and I haven’t seen much speculation about which is most likely."

Close date may be extended if it seems like the situation hasn't settled down.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇮🇱 Israel

#🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict

#Israeli Politics

#ACX

#Scott Alexander

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"the Gaza story is over. The Israelis won’t leave it to Hamas ever again. They learned this lesson on October 7. From now on they will keep close tabs on it and will remain boots on the ground indefinitely."

opened a Ṁ100 Permanently occupy G... YES at 45% order

I think July is a bit too early to resolve this.

@Daniel_MC I know I said close may be extended, but I don't want to keep extending it indefinitely, because it is medium term, not long term.

How do you plan to handle claims that the plan was A bit unexpected events led to B? Would you rely on claims about the initial plan from Israeli officials? Expert analysis?

@0482 I'll go with what actually ends up happening.

Kill some Hamas leaders, then get out

Does that option imply Hamas is still in charge and remain significant military capabilities?

Permanently occupy Gaza like they’re occupying the West Bank

The analogy to the West Bank means there must be civilian settlements for this to be resolved as YES? Otherwise it's more like the historic South Lebanon situation

Passing control to the Palestinian National Authority - is it "puppet government" or "other"?

I think this will be really tough to resolve and I will not invest more than a little gambling money here.

Here is my try:
/marketwise/will-israel-occupy-gaza-in-april
/marketwise/will-israel-withdraw-again-from-gaz

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