Inspired by Scott:
https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/mantic-monday-103023
"I can’t find any markets on the Middle East topic I’m actually interested in, which is Israel’s medium-term plan. Will they kill some Hamas leaders, then get out? Install a puppet government? Permanently occupy Gaza like they’re occupying the West Bank? These all seem like bad options, but they’re very different bad options, and I haven’t seen much speculation about which is most likely."
Close date may be extended if it seems like the situation hasn't settled down.
Update 2024-10-12 (PST): The market will resolve as 'Permanently occupy Gaza like they're occupying the West Bank' unless the creator is convinced otherwise. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-23-01 (PST): - Resolution criteria updated to: Kill some Hamas leaders, then get out. (AI summary of creator comment)
People are also trading
@benjaminIkuta what about it? Does the current situation qualify as occupying gaza like the west bank, what with not controlling all of gaza, nor declaring intentions similar to those for the west bank? Would it qualify if the isf thing happen?
@Daniel_MC I know I said close may be extended, but I don't want to keep extending it indefinitely, because it is medium term, not long term.
I think this will be really tough to resolve and I will not invest more than a little gambling money here.
Here is my try:
/marketwise/will-israel-occupy-gaza-in-april
/marketwise/will-israel-withdraw-again-from-gaz