Inspired by Scott:

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/mantic-monday-103023

"I can’t find any markets on the Middle East topic I’m actually interested in, which is Israel’s medium-term plan. Will they kill some Hamas leaders, then get out? Install a puppet government? Permanently occupy Gaza like they’re occupying the West Bank? These all seem like bad options, but they’re very different bad options, and I haven’t seen much speculation about which is most likely."

Close date may be extended if it seems like the situation hasn't settled down.

• Update 2024-10-12 (PST): The market will resolve as 'Permanently occupy Gaza like they're occupying the West Bank' unless the creator is convinced otherwise. (AI summary of creator comment)

• Update 2025-23-01 (PST): - Resolution criteria updated to: Kill some Hamas leaders, then get out. (AI summary of creator comment)