What is Israel’s medium-term plan (what will end up happening?)?
16
208
510
Jun 30
8%
Kill some Hamas leaders, then get out
21%
Install a puppet government
49%
Permanently occupy Gaza like they’re occupying the West Bank
4%
Get bogged down in a stalemate
8%
Permanently cut gaza in half, occupy the North
11%
Other

Inspired by Scott:

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/mantic-monday-103023

"I can’t find any markets on the Middle East topic I’m actually interested in, which is Israel’s medium-term plan. Will they kill some Hamas leaders, then get out? Install a puppet government? Permanently occupy Gaza like they’re occupying the West Bank? These all seem like bad options, but they’re very different bad options, and I haven’t seen much speculation about which is most likely."

Close date may be extended if it seems like the situation hasn't settled down.

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How do you plan to handle claims that the plan was A bit unexpected events led to B? Would you rely on claims about the initial plan from Israeli officials? Expert analysis?

@0482 I'll go with what actually ends up happening.

Kill some Hamas leaders, then get out

Does that option imply Hamas is still in charge and remain significant military capabilities?

Permanently occupy Gaza like they’re occupying the West Bank

The analogy to the West Bank means there must be civilian settlements for this to be resolved as YES? Otherwise it's more like the historic South Lebanon situation

bought Ṁ10 of Other YES

Passing control to the Palestinian National Authority - is it "puppet government" or "other"?

bought Ṁ5 of Permanently occupy G... YES

I think this will be really tough to resolve and I will not invest more than a little gambling money here.

Here is my try:
/marketwise/will-israel-occupy-gaza-in-april
/marketwise/will-israel-withdraw-again-from-gaz

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