As the 2025 or later option is now more than 50%, I've created a new question with a longer time horizon.
I will resolve based on the (de facto) end date in this Wikipedia page:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war
Details:
I will update the link in the event of change in name or split of the article. (Update 4th May 2024: I have updated the link to what the old link redirects too as the article name has changed)
This is only about the war between Israel and hamas. If a war between Israel and Lebanon (or another power) breaks out, that will not affect this market.
I will wait until the end date has been the same for a full 7 day period (or longer if I judge that there are still edit wars)
If there was an escalation that bought in new countries (enough that there's a new name for the conflict), I'll choose the Wikipedia page that is closest to talking about only the Gaza part of the war.
I will likely edit the description in response to good suggestions.
I will not bet in this market.
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@DanPowell No I wouldn't resolve NA if there was an escalation that bought in new countries (enough that there's a new name for the conflict).
I think there would be 2 options in that scenario:
Resolve this question based on when the Gaza part of the wider war is over
Resolve this question based on when the larger war ends
However I'll also remain beholden to how Wikipedia classifies things.
I don't have strong feelings so might wait and see what feedback there is from people before I update the criteria. I lean towards option 1.
@TheBayesian battle of Mosul was 9 months, so maybe that's a decent proxy? Drop off at July is weird though.
Anyone want to share their reasoning/model for this? Some factors which I think are relevant, but don't know how to tie together, are:
What are Hamas's goals in the original attack?
What are Israeli goals? Are they really the destruction of Hamas?
Is that possible? How long will it take with/without ground offensive?
How long will popular opinion in Israel last?
How long will popular opinion in Gaza last? Does it even matter?
How long will American aid last? How much does Israel rely on that aid?
How does it relate to Netanyahu's precarious legal and political position?
How does it relate to foreign Arab interests? Qatari? Iranian?
and yes I will continue to bet using this model
(please don't let this joke disrupt real discussion, I am actually also interested if other people have serious takes)
1/8: Only goal I've heard that makes any rational sense is driving Israel away from Saudi (to Iran's Benefit). Think the leaders of Hamas in Qatar don't care about the retaliation. If not that then only other motivation is like Jihad which is hard for my western brain to understand.
2 / 3: I think Israel knows they can't completely destroy Hamas, but reckon they think they can reduce its activities 90% or so with an occupation. Who knows how long the offensive will take - that's what the market's for!
4: for Israeli I think this is a 9/11 level event. Sustained popular opinion.
5: More the gazians get bombed, more they hate Israel.
6: US aid to Israel is tiny compared to Ukraine. Us probably considers Israel a closer ally anyway. Isreal has 60% debt to GDP so is probably fine without US aid for the medium term at least.
7: I think Bibi's days a re numbered. He's gone shortly after the war for the intelligence fuck up. Similar to Golda after Yom Kippur War.