As the 2025 or later option is now more than 50%, I've created a new question with a longer time horizon. 

I will resolve based on the (de facto) end date in this Wikipedia page:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war

I will update the link in the event of change in name or split of the article. (Update 4th May 2024: I have updated the link to what the old link redirects too as the article name has changed)

This is only about the war between Israel and hamas. If a war between Israel and Lebanon (or another power) breaks out, that will not affect this market. 

I will wait until the end date has been the same for a full 7 day period (or longer if I judge that there are still edit wars)

If there was an escalation that bought in new countries (enough that there's a new name for the conflict), I'll choose the Wikipedia page that is closest to talking about only the Gaza part of the war. 

I will likely edit the description in response to good suggestions. 