Will Israel withdraw again from Gaza before April?
Will Israel withdraw again from Gaza before April?
20
350Ṁ3952resolved Apr 1
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market tries to forecast a possible "end" of the current conflict. Will Israel determine they are done and simply leave the Gaza strip? For this market, we only consider official statements by Israel and take them at face value. It does not matter what Israel's enemies claim happens.
Resolves YES if Israel declares they have left the Gaza strip comparable to the status before October 7. Military and government control must be in Palestinian hands (unlike Westbank). No ongoing bombing campaign.
Resolves NO by April 2024.
(In April, Israel celebrates Passover. That felt like a reasonable cutoff month)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.