This market tries to forecast a possible "end" of the current conflict. Will Israel determine they are done and simply leave the Gaza strip? For this market, we only consider official statements by Israel and take them at face value. It does not matter what Israel's enemies claim happens.

Resolves YES if Israel declares they have left the Gaza strip comparable to the status before October 7. Military and government control must be in Palestinian hands (unlike Westbank). No ongoing bombing campaign.

Resolves NO by April 2024.

(In April, Israel celebrates Passover. That felt like a reasonable cutoff month)