The most likely path here is AGI and world government, or regional government like Abrahamic Union. I think (and hope) that it's super unlikely for Hamas os a similar group to win and perpetrate a second Holocaust.

@MichaelWheatley do you mind if I duplicate your markets for 2050 and 2075, or would you like to do it yourself?

@JuJumper sorry missed the notification. Go for it.

I think that if at any point it ceases to be the case that Jews anywhere have a right to immigrate to Israel, it is no longer serving its intended purpose even if none of the other stipulations apply. What do you think?

@BrunoParga That might be true, (I'm not Jewish so I'm not an expert in Israel's mandate) but I want to keep this market as clear-cut as possible. I think I chose my words poorly in describing my rationale. Mainly it's supposed to be a market on whether Israel continues to exist, but I felt I needed to rule out in advance the most egregious possible technicalities: e.g. Israel technically still exists but Jews are fleeing it en masse. A watered-down disappointment of an Israel should still qualify for this market, simply because I want to minimize arguments about subjective questions and technicalities.