Will Israel still exist in 2100?
8
81
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2100
78%
chance
  • Resolves NO if at any point between now and 2100 Israel doesn't exist.

  • Successor states count.

  • I will resolve NO if it loses more than 50% of its Jewish population to emigration or expulsion within a 10-year window, e.g. if it's invaded by a neighboring country and left officially intact, but is no longer serving its intended purpose.

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I think that if at any point it ceases to be the case that Jews anywhere have a right to immigrate to Israel, it is no longer serving its intended purpose even if none of the other stipulations apply. What do you think?

@BrunoParga That might be true, (I'm not Jewish so I'm not an expert in Israel's mandate) but I want to keep this market as clear-cut as possible. I think I chose my words poorly in describing my rationale. Mainly it's supposed to be a market on whether Israel continues to exist, but I felt I needed to rule out in advance the most egregious possible technicalities: e.g. Israel technically still exists but Jews are fleeing it en masse. A watered-down disappointment of an Israel should still qualify for this market, simply because I want to minimize arguments about subjective questions and technicalities.