Will Israel still exist in 2100?

175Ṁ317

2100

81%

chance

ALL

Resolves NO if at any point between now and 2100 Israel doesn't exist.
Successor states count.
I will resolve NO if it loses more than 50% of its Jewish population to emigration or expulsion within a 10-year window, e.g. if it's invaded by a neighboring country and left officially intact, but is no longer serving its intended purpose.

Israel

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bought Ṁ25 YES

The most likely path here is AGI and world government, or regional government like Abrahamic Union. I think (and hope) that it's super unlikely for Hamas os a similar group to win and perpetrate a second Holocaust.

@MichaelWheatley do you mind if I duplicate your markets for 2050 and 2075, or would you like to do it yourself?

@JuJumper sorry missed the notification. Go for it.

I think that if at any point it ceases to be the case that Jews anywhere have a right to immigrate to Israel, it is no longer serving its intended purpose even if none of the other stipulations apply. What do you think?

@BrunoParga That might be true, (I'm not Jewish so I'm not an expert in Israel's mandate) but I want to keep this market as clear-cut as possible. I think I chose my words poorly in describing my rationale. Mainly it's supposed to be a market on whether Israel continues to exist, but I felt I needed to rule out in advance the most egregious possible technicalities: e.g. Israel technically still exists but Jews are fleeing it en masse. A watered-down disappointment of an Israel should still qualify for this market, simply because I want to minimize arguments about subjective questions and technicalities.