In an statement made after appearing in court on Jan 9th, 2024 to argue that US Presidents are immune from prosecution for any crimes committed while in office, the former president said "It'll be bedlam in the country. It's a very bad thing. It's a very bad precedent. As we said, it's the opening of a Pandora's box." to describe what he thinks will happen in the US if he loses the election while he's on trial.
https://www.axios.com/2024/01/09/trump-warns-bedlam-immunity-claim-loses-election
"Bedlam" is a reference to Bethlem Royal Hospital, a psychiatric hospital in England that was infamous for its mistreatment of patients and frequent incidents of violence. It is also, possibly, a reference to the 1946 Boris Karlov horror film. (wikipedia)
For the purpose of this market, "bedlam" is defined quantitatively: if the violent crime rate surpasses 500 cases per 100,000 in 2025, breaking a 30-year downtrend. This is based on crime statistics showing a decrease from 729.6 cases per 100,000 in 1990 to 369.8 cases per 100,000 in 2022.
Crime Rate:
2022: 369.8 cases per 100,000
2020: 385.2 cases per 100,000
2010: 411.8 cases per 100,000
2000: 506.5 cases per 100,000
1990: 729.6 cases per 100,000
Resolution Criteria:
Resolves YES Trump loses the 2024 presidential election and there is "bedlam".
Resolves NO Trump loses the 2024 presidential election and there is no "bedlam".
Resolve N/A if Trump wins 2024 presidential election, he loses the primary election, drops out of the election or any other condition where he is no longer an eligible candidate for the general election.
1,000
3.00Another warning of "bedlam" from el generalissimo. This time he tossed the 1946 Boris Karlov horror movie reference as a threat loosely directed at SCOTUS over the Colorado 14th Amendment case.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/01/18/trump-supreme-court-colorado-ballot-brief/
Tiny clarifying correction, but Trump was specifically referring to prosecution by "Biden's DOJ" not prosecution in general, in reference to the "bedlam" quote.
It's interesting to see how this was variably reported in the media from Trump threatening violence if he loses for any reason, to Trump warning of violence if his supporters judge he was unfairly prosecuted by the DOJ. Full transcript is here:
@AlQuinn I'm not sure that's a useful clarification. In any case, this market is not interested in who the president is now, who is or is not pulling strings at the DOJ or any other stipulations. You should make your own calculations based on the information you have available to you before participating in this market.
@becauseyoudo sorry, now I notice that Trump still being under prosecution at the time of the election was not a requirement in your market, even though that was not the scenario he described in his statement. In that case, you're right, it doesn't matter whether it's the DOJ or a state that's prosecuting him, since it's not conditional on any ongoing prosecution.