If this wasn't just based on pre/post election day, I think the -20% option would be much better here. If you glance at their prospectus, it's just a disaster. They fundamentally admit that the stock is entirely dependent on people caring about Trump's personal brand, they have no path to turning a profit, and if anything happens to him it's kaput. Does it fall that much over 1-3 days? Probably not. Does it fall that much if he gets incarcerated, if people stop paying attention to him, etc etc, over the course of a year or two? Pretty easily.

If he wins, does the loses option resolve No? N/A?

@jack The lose options would resolve N/A. Should have specified.

Also, the “loses” questions are phrased ambiguously. Which answer indicates the market will decline less than 20%?

Whichever way the election goes, polling data is likely to give a good indication in the days leading up to the election. Whatever the result, it seems unlikely to be a +20% surprise on Election Day. Either way, expect more volatility going into the election than coming out of it.

... is this testing out whether partially dependent markets would be worthwhile??