How will $DJT move if Trump wins/loses?
36
1.6kṀ6974
resolved Dec 28
Resolved
N/A
Loses: > -20%
Resolved
N/A
Loses: -20% or more
Resolved
YES
Wins: <20%
Resolved
NO
Wins: +20% or more

I will compare the market closing price of $DJT on the last trading day before Election Day (Nov 4th) with the closing price of the first trading day that occurs after this market is resolved: /jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964. If Trump wins, the Lose options will resolve N/A (and vice versa).

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Please resolve this Market.

bought Ṁ750 YES
bought Ṁ800 NO

The market can be resolved to
Wins: +20% or more (NO)
Wins: <20% (YES)
The mentioned market settled on 06. November.
$DJT had a closing price of 34.34$ on 04. November and 27.69$ on 07. November.
Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (DJT) Stock Historical Prices & Data - Yahoo Finance

bought Ṁ45 NO

If this wasn't just based on pre/post election day, I think the -20% option would be much better here. If you glance at their prospectus, it's just a disaster. They fundamentally admit that the stock is entirely dependent on people caring about Trump's personal brand, they have no path to turning a profit, and if anything happens to him it's kaput. Does it fall that much over 1-3 days? Probably not. Does it fall that much if he gets incarcerated, if people stop paying attention to him, etc etc, over the course of a year or two? Pretty easily.

If he wins, does the loses option resolve No? N/A?

@jack The lose options would resolve N/A. Should have specified.

sold Ṁ30 NO

Also, the “loses” questions are phrased ambiguously. Which answer indicates the market will decline less than 20%?

Whichever way the election goes, polling data is likely to give a good indication in the days leading up to the election. Whatever the result, it seems unlikely to be a +20% surprise on Election Day. Either way, expect more volatility going into the election than coming out of it.

bought Ṁ30 NO

... is this testing out whether partially dependent markets would be worthwhile??

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