I will compare the market closing price of $DJT on the last trading day before Election Day (Nov 4th) with the closing price of the first trading day that occurs after this market is resolved: /jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964. If Trump wins, the Lose options will resolve N/A (and vice versa).
If this wasn't just based on pre/post election day, I think the -20% option would be much better here. If you glance at their prospectus, it's just a disaster. They fundamentally admit that the stock is entirely dependent on people caring about Trump's personal brand, they have no path to turning a profit, and if anything happens to him it's kaput. Does it fall that much over 1-3 days? Probably not. Does it fall that much if he gets incarcerated, if people stop paying attention to him, etc etc, over the course of a year or two? Pretty easily.
If he wins, does the loses option resolve No? N/A?
Also, the “loses” questions are phrased ambiguously. Which answer indicates the market will decline less than 20%?