In an statement made after appearing in court on Jan 9th, 2024 to argue that US Presidents are immune from prosecution for any crimes committed while in office, the former president said "It'll be bedlam in the country. It's a very bad thing. It's a very bad precedent. As we said, it's the opening of a Pandora's box." to describe what he thinks will happen in the US if he loses the election while he's on trial.
https://www.axios.com/2024/01/09/trump-warns-bedlam-immunity-claim-loses-election
"Bedlam" is a reference to Bethlem Royal Hospital, a psychiatric hospital in England that was infamous for its mistreatment of patients and frequent incidents of violence. It is also, possibly, a reference to the 1946 Boris Karlov horror film. (wikipedia)
For the purpose of this market, "bedlam" is defined quantitatively: if the violent crime rate surpasses 500 cases per 100,000 in 2025, breaking a 30-year downtrend. This is based on crime statistics showing a decrease from 729.6 cases per 100,000 in 1990 to 369.8 cases per 100,000 in 2022.
Crime Rate:
2022: 369.8 cases per 100,000
2020: 385.2 cases per 100,000
2010: 411.8 cases per 100,000
2000: 506.5 cases per 100,000
1990: 729.6 cases per 100,000
Resolution Criteria:
Resolves YES Trump loses the 2024 presidential election and there is "bedlam".
Resolves NO Trump loses the 2024 presidential election and there is no "bedlam".
Resolve N/A if Trump wins 2024 presidential election, he loses the primary election, drops out of the election or any other condition where he is no longer an eligible candidate for the general election.
1,000