Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Will there be significant social unrest, protests, riots, etc. over the results of the 2024 presidential election?
118
Ṁ1.2kṀ40k
resolved Feb 19
Resolved
NO

Significant enough to make national news and be a talking point. The January 6th riot in 2020 would have counted, as would the "not my president" protests in 2016.

A single news article on the protest doesn't count; it needs to be a part of The Discourse™. A big thing that even someone who isn't very involved in politics would probably hear about on social media.

Market context
US Politics
Politics
2024 US Presidential Election
Culture War
Bad Rules
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ1,899
2Ṁ1,190
3Ṁ523
4Ṁ378
5Ṁ329

People are also trading

Sort by:

@Isaacking2

@mods

@10thOfficial Wrong isaac :)

@IsaacKing It looks like this resolves to No.

@bagelfan @IsaacKing please resolve or explain the delay.

bought Ṁ200 YES

Gearing up:

https://x.com/amuse/status/1854348731920851206?s=46&t=UTLUQVQtiXMrPvvihxga3g

See also:

Think about reframing. "Will there be riots" is 1969. "Will there be a peaceful transfer of power" may be more what you're going for.

Will there be riots in Miami June 13, 2023 due to Trump’s court appearance?
50% chance. This market resolves YES if during June 13, 2023 (until 23:59:59 local time) protests, riots, social unrest occur in Miami, FL that carry the (political) message of favoring the indicted, attacking the judicial system or similar and that meet one or more of the following criteria, report…

The rules are way too vague. There is no such thing as "the national news". Delete the market, resolve at market price, and remake with proper rules using things that are measurable. Ex. a protest involving > 10,000 people. A riot where 1 or more police cars are burned.

Related:

People are also trading