Will there be significant social unrest, protests, riots, etc. over the results of the 2024 presidential election?
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Significant enough to make national news and be a talking point. The January 6th riot in 2020 would have counted, as would the "not my president" protests in 2016.

A single news article on the protest doesn't count; it needs to be a part of The Discourse™. A big thing that even someone who isn't very involved in politics would probably hear about on social media.

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Think about reframing. "Will there be riots" is 1969. "Will there be a peaceful transfer of power" may be more what you're going for.

The rules are way too vague. There is no such thing as "the national news". Delete the market, resolve at market price, and remake with proper rules using things that are measurable. Ex. a protest involving > 10,000 people. A riot where 1 or more police cars are burned.

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