If Trump wins, will there be wide scale civil disorder in the weeks following the election? | Manifold

If Trump wins, will there be wide scale civil disorder in the weeks following the election?

Plus

47

Ṁ4068

Jan 23

20%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

If Trump wins, will there be wide scale civic unrest? This would be something like riots with widespread property damage, dozens of injuries, thousands arrested or multiple fatalities. It would have to happen in more than one city.

The judgment will be pretty subjective so I will not bet. If Trump loses this will resolve as N/A.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

Can you give some examples of things you would or wouldn't consider civic unrest? (I'm guessing no civil unrest after 2016 and 2020 elections, yes unrest in the George Floyd riots and jan6 stuff?)

No 2016, 2020 or Jan 6. Yes for the George Floyd, Rodney King or MLK riots. Jan 6 only really happened in Washington, it is a close case but I would say no.

Probably worth knowing before trading - are you a Trump voter?

@BrunoParga No I am not.

@JimAusman We're keeping our fingers crossed for the N/A.

Related questions

Will there be significant social unrest, protests, riots, etc. over the results of the 2024 presidential election?

Conditional on Trump/Biden winning the 2024 presidential, will there be a large scale rioting in the US before 2026 ?

If Trump is elected, will the National Guard be called out in response to rioting on or before Inauguration Day?

Will there be major Black riots under the Trump administration?

Will Donald Trump call for violence before the next inauguration?

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

+3% 1d23% chance

If the Republicans do not win the US 2024 election, will the civil unrest 'trump' the 2020 civil unrest after Biden won?

Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before 2026?

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Will there be "bedlam" in the US if Trump loses the election?

Related questions

Will there be significant social unrest, protests, riots, etc. over the results of the 2024 presidential election?

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Conditional on Trump/Biden winning the 2024 presidential, will there be a large scale rioting in the US before 2026 ?

If the Republicans do not win the US 2024 election, will the civil unrest 'trump' the 2020 civil unrest after Biden won?

If Trump is elected, will the National Guard be called out in response to rioting on or before Inauguration Day?

Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before 2026?

Will there be major Black riots under the Trump administration?

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Will Donald Trump call for violence before the next inauguration?

Will there be "bedlam" in the US if Trump loses the election?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules