- This market will resolve as N/A if Donald J. Trump does not win the 2024 U.S. Presidential election, or if he does not assume the office of President on January 20, 2025.
- An armed conflict is defined as sustained military engagements involving direct combat between the armed forces of the United States and the People's Republic of China.
- This market will resolve as YES if an armed conflict occurs between the United States and the People's Republic of China during Trump's presidency.
- If there is no armed conflict between the United States and the People's Republic of China by the end of Trump's presidency, this market will resolve as NO.
- The market will resolve on January 21, 2029. This allows for the possibility of Trump serving a full four-year term from January 20, 2025, to January 20, 2029.
- If Trump leaves office before January 20, 2029, the market will resolve within 7 days after his departure.
If the US military provides support to Second Thomas Shoal and Chinese military boats try to stop that support - what will need to happen for this to qualify as sustained military engagements?
Multiple engagements? Is that just two or more? Gunfire during both engagements? Or would other weapons qualify?