This is a market on the state of US politics and polarisation. I, from my vantage point as an Australian observer will judge the outcome. Media shared by market participants is welcome and I'll view it as neutrally as possible.
I am a swinging voter myself and believe I have a fairly neutral view of US politics.
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Very interesting read for this topic:
Trump is facing extreme longshot odds of avoiding prison time if the cases against him proceed normally. That leaves him dependent on winning the presidency to avoid this, so should he lose the election he has the choice of either accepting the result and facing prison time or contesting the results like he did in the previous election, to which his prior decisions indicate he would most definitely choose the latter. This call to action and folk hero status would seem likely to be a green light for his more violent followers (re Proud Boys) to employ means of force and violence to impose this outcome, such as kidnapping a governor or secretary of state or perhaps doing takeovers of state capital buildings, basically a lot of smaller Jan 6th events and thus, would be considered a much greater degree of civil unrest than following 2020 election.
@Spice_N_Wolf Nothing wrong with your analysis, but I figure most people in any position to stop any of these smaller J6 events have come to the same conclusion.
@ClubmasterTransparent One can only hope? 😅 But that still leaves the question of if they are allocated the resources and permissions to do so? And if it is recognized as such while it is still able to be responded to like that? Especially if this were to happen in deep red states, you know?
@Fatih agree. Of course it COULD always get worse. But the rule-of-law side should be better prepared this time, plus the consequences meted out to large numbers of J6'ers should deter bandwagoners and looky-loos this time.