Convince me market is efficient in this instance and I should instead diversify (Wealthfront Robo-advisor).
I find Bing Chat very useful. I consider this to be a strong evidence of Microsoft's ability to be an important part of technological revolution with impacts comparable or larger than creation of Google-like search engines of the early internet. Substantially more useful tools will be developed within years.
These companies seem to have experts and infrastructure to develop and deploy large models. I am not aware of any other company that is legibly capable and startups can be bought by big ones.
Evidence against EMH:
MSFT did not react to Bing Chat.
Top rationalists updated towards faster progress recently, they were ahead of market with early crypto and covid, AI is their playground.
Regardless of profitability, I expect at least a bubble similar to covid related stock. Retail investors may not learn fast and pros will take AI believers for a ride.
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@Charlie True, my position in META is small.
But if I heard, e.g., Warren Buffet has just sold META, I may dump all of it.
Also my FOMO is sufficiently countered by having 2-3 out of 4.
Or if I became convinced GOOGL or META price does not correspond to the size of advertising market, there is a possibility they are already some kind of GameStop money. I have not yet looked price-to-earnings and such, and I know very little about how to work with them.
In short, I would need to start believing one of them is clearly overpriced. Some numbers would be needed, or opinion of people I respect, Wei Dai, E. Yudkowski, Taleb, Buffet.
@ian I will check him out, thanks for the tip. I like Alphabet - because DeepMind and how much the stock fell recently.