These two companies currently seem to be competing in many key areas such as artificial intelligence, search engines etc. I'm curious if you believe they can continue to grow together at comparable rates or if there will be a "winner takes all" situation in these fields.
Currently Alphabet has a market cap of 1.75T USD and Microsoft 3.00T USD. So the current factor is 3.00/1.75 = 1.71. The resolution will be determined by taking the market cap of these two companies on the first market open in 2030 (and dividing the larger value by the smaller value). If the number is greater than 3 or either company no longer exists the market will Resolve YES. Otherwise it will resolve NO.
Beyond the general uncertainty of the stock market I'm curious if you belive the returns of these companies will be negatively correlated over the long term. Does one company doing well make it more likely that the other company does bad? I could see this being the case with AI where the first company to reach some breakthrough will be able to completely outcompete others.