
Will Google still be a big tech giant by the end of 2030?
33
closes 2031
92%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Amount
Ṁ0
Ṁ50
Ṁ100
Payout if YES
Ṁ10 +8%
New probability
92%
Will be resolved via public sentiment
Get Ṁ500 play money
Related questions
Sort by:
duck_masterbought Ṁ10 of NO
Google's only been around for 25 years (it was founded in 1998), so https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wE7SK8w8AixqknArs/a-time-invariant-version-of-laplace-s-rule suggests that the probability it'll remain is (1 + 7/25)^(-1) = 78%.
In my opinion, this is way too high. https://www.reuters.com/technology/alphabet-falls-report-samsung-considering-bing-default-search-engine-2023-04-17/
> Google's reaction to the threat was "panic" as the company earns an estimated $3 billion in annual revenue from the Samsung contract, the report said, citing internal messages.
> Another $20 billion is tied to a similar Apple (AAPL.O) contract that will be up for renewal this year, the report added.
4 replies


Sort by:
0 YES payouts
Ṁ269
Ṁ169
Ṁ121
Ṁ110
Ṁ109
Ṁ94
Ṁ72
Ṁ21
Ṁ11
Ṁ11
Ṁ11
Ṁ11
Ṁ11
Ṁ11
Ṁ11
Ṁ11
Ṁ11
Ṁ10
0 NO payouts
Ṁ245
Ṁ150
Ṁ109
Ṁ100
Ṁ87



















Related questions
Will at least 3 of the big 5 tech companies (Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Facebook, Google) end their hiring freeze by 2024?
A publicly-traded Google competitor's search-derived revenue exceeds Google's search-derived revenue for four consecutive quarters before 2028.
Will all of the 5 big tech companies (Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Facebook, Google) have a higher stock price at the end of 2023 than at the start?