blank's calibration
Grade: A-, Score: -0.91
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when blank bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
20%
30%
50%
70%
- Will the AstralCodexTen discord admin on Jan 1st, 2023 be the same as the top result in TheSkeward's manifold question on Sep 1st, 2022?YESṀ224
- Will Joe Biden's approval rating be greater than or equal to 40% on March 13th, 2022, 11:59 GMT?YESṀ60
- Will the AstralCodexTen discord admin on Jan 1st, 2023 be the same as the top result in TheSkeward's manifold question on Sep 1st, 2022?YESṀ60
80%
90%
95%
97%