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MANIFOLD
Before or at April 5th, 2022, a reputable news source will confirm that Queen Elizabeth II has passed away
61
Ṁ100Ṁ15k
resolved Apr 6
Resolved
NO
This market resolves to "YES" if, before or at April 5th, 2022, a reputable news source confirms that Queen Elizabeth II has passed away. It will resolve to "NO" if this is not confirmed. Note: this includes the situation where the Queen has, in fact, passed away, but the news is not confirmed at or before April 5th. Close date updated to 2022-04-20 11:59 pm Close date updated to 2022-04-06 11:59 pm
Market context
Politics
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Just hedging. For the other QE2 market
The cost isn't zero - if you are wrong, you have to pay back the M$20 out of your balance
I'm seeing the problem with the 100% loan of up to M$20... I'm incentivized to drop the free $20 on every question with tiny estimate percentages, not because I think the market is wrong but because the reward if they are is large, and the cost is zero.
This seems far too high. Should be closer to 1%. https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html
It may be interesting to look at some actuary data.

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