Will Bitcoin be above $50k by the end of March 2022?
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Ṁ29kresolved Sep 20
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This market resolves to yes or by midnight of March 31 the price of Bitcoin is at or above $50,000.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@StevenYang Yes, opportunity costs are a consideration. Some markets try to evaluate how big of a problem this is, for example:
https://manifold.markets/Undox/market-resolution-is-yes-but-undox
There are various proposed solutions, but for the moment, nothing systematic has been done about this, I believe. https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-manifold-set-abandoned-questio has more context.
In this present case, maybe @Sinclair needs to send out one more email :)
@Sjlver The first experiment is fascinating to have a market rate for the probability.
The problem might not have a systematic approach.
@Sinclair if you like to take my ideas back to the core team:
1. Add an attribute to disclose how objective the settlement would be and let the attribute visible on the UI. (For example, presidential election result would have very limited room for interpretation; bitcoin price on a date, may need to peg to one exchange market's price; some personal commitments would have a high risk)
2. Educate the participants about the risk of unresolved questions. So the bet would be informed bets.
From Manifold's market's perspective, it needs liquidity to reflect the distribution of confidence in the market. Frozen and locked liquidity is lost user activities and distorted signals. (Like now, 90% of my voting rights are locked.. T-T)
@GregB - are you intending on closing this prior to the resolution time? Please also name your source of information and the time zone, as there is no natural or canonical time zone for Bitcoin!
I think it'd be a more interesting market to see where it'll be in six months. The crypto boosters keep claiming that the dollar inflation is going to push people into adoption, but I think if they weren't already burning down the Fed because of this shit in the 70s the average person probably isn't savvy enough to understand the myriad ways the government is taxing them.