Will Bitcoin be above $50k by the end of March 2022?

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Ṁ29k

resolved Sep 20

Resolved

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This market resolves to yes or by midnight of March 31 the price of Bitcoin is at or above $50,000.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Please Resolve

Get

1,000

and

3.00

17 Comments

50 Holders

146 Trades

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Resolved because overdue with clear resolution available

I think @GregB has ghosted the platform. So can a mod resolve this?

predicted NO

For future bets, should we take into consideration of a bet not being resolved? As the M$ locked in a bet has opportunity cost here.

predicted NO

@StevenYang Yes, opportunity costs are a consideration. Some markets try to evaluate how big of a problem this is, for example: https://manifold.markets/Undox/market-resolution-is-yes-but-undox There are various proposed solutions, but for the moment, nothing systematic has been done about this, I believe. https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-manifold-set-abandoned-questio has more context. In this present case, maybe @Sinclair needs to send out one more email :)

predicted NO

@Sjlver The first experiment is fascinating to have a market rate for the probability. The problem might not have a systematic approach. @Sinclair if you like to take my ideas back to the core team: 1. Add an attribute to disclose how objective the settlement would be and let the attribute visible on the UI. (For example, presidential election result would have very limited room for interpretation; bitcoin price on a date, may need to peg to one exchange market's price; some personal commitments would have a high risk) 2. Educate the participants about the risk of unresolved questions. So the bet would be informed bets. From Manifold's market's perspective, it needs liquidity to reflect the distribution of confidence in the market. Frozen and locked liquidity is lost user activities and distorted signals. (Like now, 90% of my voting rights are locked.. T-T)

I have emailed @GregB a reminder to resolve this market

predicted NO

#abandoned, should resolve NO.

@GregB - are you intending on closing this prior to the resolution time? Please also name your source of information and the time zone, as there is no natural or canonical time zone for Bitcoin!

I think it'd be a more interesting market to see where it'll be in six months. The crypto boosters keep claiming that the dollar inflation is going to push people into adoption, but I think if they weren't already burning down the Fed because of this shit in the 70s the average person probably isn't savvy enough to understand the myriad ways the government is taxing them.

Alright fighters “lets take this outside”. What I mean is you crazy bulls want to bet with me on a CCFM version shout out on Discord and Ill set up a market and we can move money over. We both get a better deal because we fix the odds, late whales cant steal from us.

I'd chuck more NO on at this point if I had it, BTC/USD trending down, and getting closer to the finish line.

Theta decay

Specifying if it’s USD, CAD, AUD, etc would be nice. I know the USA is the cultural hegemony of the internet but markets like this are better the less vague they are.

Foot off gas because this is “by” not “on”

Options market says no: $100 for an option to buy at $50k on 28 Mar. Lets say if it does print, it pays out 2k t average then thats implying 19-1 odds.

I'm still a bull but since there is no 'free speech' (it costs M$1) I need the cash.

Do you mean if it's at or above $50k any time between now and then, or if it's at or above $50k specifically then? (i.e.: does it count if it goes above $50k before March 31st, then drops again?)

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