If I publish a LessWrong post critiquing part of Ajeya Cotra's draft report on AI timelines, will it receive over 50 karma within 72 hours?
15
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resolved Feb 26
Resolved
YES
I intend to soon publish a critique of one part of Ajeya Cotra's draft report on AI timelines, which can be found here: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KrJfoZzpSDpnrv9va/draft-report-on-ai-timelines **Content of the post** My critique will focus on the fact that she assumes that hardware progress in the future will resemble hardware progress in the past; more precisely, she assumes that price-performance for GPUs will cut in half roughly every 2.5 years over the next 50 years. I think that price-performance trends are already fairly close to saturating; or at the least, we should expect future progress in the medium-term to be slower than what we observed in the past. This adjustment implies correspondingly longer and more uncertain AI timelines than her implicit bottom line. It also makes her analysis less informative, since a soft assumption of her report is that, fundamentally, "progress in hardware drives progress in AI"; but it seems we're entering an era in which that's no longer as true as it was before. **Resolution criteria** This question resolves to YES if AT ANY POINT within 72 hours of posting this critique, it receives more than 50 karma on LessWrong. This question resolves to NO otherwise. Karma is not equivalent to votes. Users differ in the number of karma they provide a post, through their votes. Strong upvotes also convey more karma than weak upvotes. If I do not post this critique to LessWrong before March 1st, then this question resolves to N/A. Note: This question will not resolve to NO simply because people coordinate to strong downvote me at the 72 hour mark. Recall: the post must simply exceed 50 karma at any point *prior* to 72 hours after posting for this to resolve YES. If the karma later falls below this threshold, it will still resolve to YES. Feb 22, 2:41pm: My LessWrong profile can be found here: https://www.lesswrong.com/users/matthew-barnett
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Curse my misanthropic pessimism, you have led me astray 😩
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Looks to me as if it just reached 50 karma?
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Link to the actual report here: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qnjDGitKxYaesbsem/a-comment-on-ajeya-cotra-s-draft-report-on-ai-timelines It's quite good (and I'm definitely not just saying because I'm invested in the outcome :P)
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Decreasing the incentive to strong downvote my post.

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