Will 1=1 on January 1st 2023?
99.3%
chance
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I will have to, I'm just using it now because it doesn't lock up any of my money in the meantime. There's enough volume in this market for me to make it back now anyway 😁
@aps Then it would be nice to show this fractional M$ - it is really confusing right now (and it would explain weird mismatches between declared numbers and actual changes!)
@BoltonBailey you do get profit, it's just a fractional M$ and so rounded in the interface. But internally it's tracked.
Interesting... basically you are subsidizing us (giving us risk free return) at your own cost in order to measure what rate people will accept.
My interpretation of this currently is that since you can spend M$100 to get guaranteed M$104 in a year, the discount rate is 4% over that time period; if anyone had a faster discount rate, they would be better off selling their YES now and cashing out to lower the probability and increase payoffs, and if they had a lower discount rate, they would be better off buying more YES to get more M$.
The "Payout if yes" can't be seen until you make the trade (the Estimated max payout is often off by a fair amount); that makes this measure very uncertain.
These kind of bets I think are really important and interesting because it helps us research the capabilities of the system, and it provides good signals to the development team about what they may need to work on.
Maybe! If this ends up completely not working and it's obvious within a week I might N/A the market, it's a bit of a silly idea
Sort of ... doesn't it depend on there being NO votes in the pool to take money away from?
James Sully
bought Ṁ10 YES at 99.3% 
Arun Jose
bought Ṁ10 YES at 99.3% 
Alec Cenci
bought Ṁ10 YES from 99.2% to 99.3% 
dp
created limit order for Ṁ100 YES at 99.0% 
Tassilo Neubauer
bought Ṁ10 YES at 99.2% Tassilo Neubauer
created limit order for Ṁ30 YES at 98% 
Logan
bought Ṁ10 YES from 99.1% to 99.2% 
Pat Myron
sold Ṁ100 YES from 99.5% to 99.1% Pat Myron
bought Ṁ100 YES from 99.1% to 99.5% 
Unconditional Probability
bought Ṁ100 YES from 98% to 99.1% 
bagelman
bought Ṁ10 NO from 99.7% to 98% 
Kristian Thomsen
bought Ṁ10 YES at 99.7% 
tinytitan
sold Ṁ10 YES at 99.7% tinytitan
bought Ṁ10 YES at 99.7% 
Mason
created limit order for Ṁ70 YES at 45% (cancelled) 
J. F. Jurchen
filled limit order Ṁ600/Ṁ600 YES at 99.0% J. F. Jurchen
bought Ṁ1 NO from 99.8% to 99.7% 
Katja Grace
bought Ṁ10 YES at 99.8% 
VelocityBot
sold Ṁ0 NO at 99.8% 
Tetraspace
sold Ṁ12,921 YES from 100.0% to 99.8% 
JuniorBotBot
bought Ṁ100 YES at 100.0% Tetraspace
bought Ṁ1,921 YES at 100.0% Unconditional Probability
filled limit order Ṁ53/Ṁ1,000 YES at 98% JuniorBotBot
bought Ṁ100 YES at 100.0% JuniorBotBot
bought Ṁ100 YES at 100.0% Tetraspace
bought Ṁ10,000 YES from 99.9% to 100.0% Tetraspace
bought Ṁ1,000 YES from 99.8% to 99.9% VelocityBot
sold Ṁ0 NO at 99.8% VelocityBot
sold Ṁ0 NO at 99.8% VelocityBot
sold Ṁ0 NO at 99.8% VelocityBot
bought Ṁ3 YES at 99.8% VelocityBot
bought Ṁ2 YES at 99.8% VelocityBot
bought Ṁ6 YES at 99.8% VelocityBot
bought Ṁ9 YES at 99.8% VelocityBot
bought Ṁ15 YES from 99.7% to 99.8% VelocityBot
bought Ṁ25 YES at 99.7% VelocityBot
bought Ṁ43 YES at 99.7% VelocityBot
bought Ṁ72 YES at 99.7% VelocityBot
bought Ṁ82 YES from 99.6% to 99.7% VelocityBot
bought Ṁ82 YES from 99.4% to 99.6% VelocityBot
bought Ṁ82 YES from 99.1% to 99.4% VelocityBot
bought Ṁ82 YES from 98% to 99.1% VelocityBot
bought Ṁ3 YES at 98% VelocityBot
bought Ṁ3 NO from 99.8% to 98% JuniorBotBot
bought Ṁ100 YES from 99.7% to 99.8% Tetraspace
sold Ṁ1 NO from 99.4% to 99.7% Tetraspace
bought Ṁ1 NO at 99.4% VelocityBot
created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 2% (cancelled) VelocityBot
created limit order for Ṁ3 YES at 25% (cancelled) VelocityBot
created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 8% (cancelled) YES shares
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