Will 1=1 on January 1st 2023?

158

Ṁ50K

Ṁ163

resolved Jan 1

Resolved

YES

ALL

This will resolve YES on January 1st 2023 with 100% probability. The price of a YES share on this question is hence the community's discount rate on M$ over the next year. Buying YES and selling it later is probably something like an interest-yielding bank account?

Get Ṁ200 play money

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#	Name	Total profit
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25 Comments

112 Holders

517 Trades

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Looks like it's staying as 1 so far:

predicted YES

@Tetraspace In an alternate universe someone suddenly bought a bunch of No at the end--their username: StephenWolfram.

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6FmqiAgS8h4EJm86s/how-to-convince-me-that-2-2-3

@JonathanNankivell #MarketsForMoving if you can pull this on me 😄

bought Ṁ5 of NO

99.5% = wat

sold Ṁ10 of NO

Might as well get your yes out now.

bought Ṁ1 of NO

I will have to, I'm just using it now because it doesn't lock up any of my money in the meantime. There's enough volume in this market for me to make it back now anyway 😁

bought Ṁ1 of YES

@Tetraspace are you sure you don't have to pay the loan back when the market resolves?

bought Ṁ20 of NO

I have a loan now so have some more risk-free return

bought Ṁ1 of NO

I would like to formally apologize for writing the words "go brr"

bought Ṁ20 of YES

loans go brr

bought Ṁ7 of YES

@aps Then it would be nice to show this fractional M$ - it is really confusing right now (and it would explain weird mismatches between declared numbers and actual changes!)

bought Ṁ1 of YES

@BoltonBailey you do get profit, it's just a fractional M$ and so rounded in the interface. But internally it's tracked.

sold Ṁ20 of YES

Hmm, at 98% I get no profit even if I enter with my M$20 loan.

bought Ṁ20 of YES

With $20 interest free loans, I expect this to converge up somewhat

sold Ṁ98 of YES

Exiting for short-term trades and market creation.

sold Ṁ52 of YES

needed to inves elsewere

bought Ṁ15 of NO

Agree with Gurkenglas -- implied interest rate seems too low

bought Ṁ20 of NO

Y'all are accepting too low interest rates.

sold Ṁ100 of YES

Pulling out to put more into Ukraine

bought Ṁ1 of YES

Interesting... basically you are subsidizing us (giving us risk free return) at your own cost in order to measure what rate people will accept.

bought Ṁ1 of YES

Cool idea.

bought Ṁ1 of YES

My interpretation of this currently is that since you can spend M$100 to get guaranteed M$104 in a year, the discount rate is 4% over that time period; if anyone had a faster discount rate, they would be better off selling their YES now and cashing out to lower the probability and increase payoffs, and if they had a lower discount rate, they would be better off buying more YES to get more M$.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

The "Payout if yes" can't be seen until you make the trade (the Estimated max payout is often off by a fair amount); that makes this measure very uncertain.

bought Ṁ1 of YES

These kind of bets I think are really important and interesting because it helps us research the capabilities of the system, and it provides good signals to the development team about what they may need to work on.