Will 1=1 on January 1st 2023?
99.3%
chance
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Undox avatar
Undox
bought Ṁ5 of NO
99.5% = wat
Undox avatar
Undox
sold Ṁ10 of NO
Might as well get your yes out now.
Tetraspace avatar
Tetraspace
bought Ṁ1 of NO
I will have to, I'm just using it now because it doesn't lock up any of my money in the meantime. There's enough volume in this market for me to make it back now anyway 😁
BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Bailey
bought Ṁ1 of YES
@Tetraspace are you sure you don't have to pay the loan back when the market resolves?
Tetraspace avatar
Tetraspace
bought Ṁ20 of NO
I have a loan now so have some more risk-free return
Conflux avatar
Conflux
bought Ṁ1 of NO
I would like to formally apologize for writing the words "go brr"
Conflux avatar
Conflux
bought Ṁ20 of YES
loans go brr
Accountdeletionrequested avatar
Account deletion requested
bought Ṁ7 of YES
@aps Then it would be nice to show this fractional M$ - it is really confusing right now (and it would explain weird mismatches between declared numbers and actual changes!)
aps avatar
aps
bought Ṁ1 of YES
@BoltonBailey you do get profit, it's just a fractional M$ and so rounded in the interface. But internally it's tracked.
BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Bailey
sold Ṁ20 of YES
Hmm, at 98% I get no profit even if I enter with my M$20 loan.
TjadenHess avatar
Tjaden Hess
bought Ṁ20 of YES
With $20 interest free loans, I expect this to converge up somewhat
Jonathan avatar
Jonathan
sold Ṁ98 of YES
Exiting for short-term trades and market creation.
ArieArie avatar
Arie Arie
sold Ṁ52 of YES
needed to inves elsewere
VivekHebbar avatar
Vivek Hebbar
bought Ṁ15 of NO
Agree with Gurkenglas -- implied interest rate seems too low
Gurkenglas avatar
Gurkenglas
bought Ṁ20 of NO
Y'all are accepting too low interest rates.
marthinwurer avatar
marthinwurer
sold Ṁ100 of YES
Pulling out to put more into Ukraine
VivekHebbar avatar
Vivek Hebbar
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Interesting... basically you are subsidizing us (giving us risk free return) at your own cost in order to measure what rate people will accept.
Sylvain avatar
Sylvain
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Cool idea.
Tetraspace avatar
Tetraspace
bought Ṁ1 of YES
My interpretation of this currently is that since you can spend M$100 to get guaranteed M$104 in a year, the discount rate is 4% over that time period; if anyone had a faster discount rate, they would be better off selling their YES now and cashing out to lower the probability and increase payoffs, and if they had a lower discount rate, they would be better off buying more YES to get more M$.
Duncan avatar
Duncan
bought Ṁ10 of YES
The "Payout if yes" can't be seen until you make the trade (the Estimated max payout is often off by a fair amount); that makes this measure very uncertain.
LarsDoucet avatar
Lars Doucet
bought Ṁ1 of YES
These kind of bets I think are really important and interesting because it helps us research the capabilities of the system, and it provides good signals to the development team about what they may need to work on.
Tetraspace avatar
Tetraspace
bought Ṁ100 of NO
Maybe! If this ends up completely not working and it's obvious within a week I might N/A the market, it's a bit of a silly idea
LarsDoucet avatar
Lars Doucet
bought Ṁ5 of YES
Sort of ... doesn't it depend on there being NO votes in the pool to take money away from?