This will resolve YES on January 1st 2023 with 100% probability. The price of a YES share on this question is hence the community's discount rate on M$ over the next year. Buying YES and selling it later is probably something like an interest-yielding bank account?

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

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# 🏅 Top traders

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@Tetraspace In an alternate universe someone suddenly bought a bunch of No at the end--their username: StephenWolfram.

@aps Then it would be nice to show this fractional M$ - it is really confusing right now (and it would explain weird mismatches between declared numbers and actual changes!)

@BoltonBailey you do get profit, it's just a fractional M$ and so rounded in the interface. But internally it's tracked.

My interpretation of this currently is that since you can spend M$100 to get guaranteed M$104 in a year, the discount rate is 4% over that time period; if anyone had a faster discount rate, they would be better off selling their YES now and cashing out to lower the probability and increase payoffs, and if they had a lower discount rate, they would be better off buying more YES to get more M$.